A 40-plus percent fall in two months would be catastrophic for most securities… and then there’s Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s futures product saw a major tumble since its intraday highs of 66,465 on Apr. 14, stabilizing near the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The /BTC contract looked like it may have caught a bid when markets opened on Sunday, but its push above the confluence of the 21-day Exponential Moving Average and the year-to-date Volume Profile’s Point of Control (the area of heaviest trading during the time period) just below 40,000 seems to have failed. It now looks that Bitcoin is forming a range between its recent highs and lows between roughly 30,000 and 40,000, with the narrowing width of the Bollinger Bands study reflecting this shrinking volatility.
Momentum had long been waning with the explosive move upward, as the RSI trended progressively lower with each new high for much of the year. If the move up starts to pick up steam once again, look for the RSI to break above a frequent point of support/resistance near 55. In terms of price, the 64-EMA near 45,680 seems like a likely upside target. To the downside, it will be important to see whether /BTC holds the 38,160 level, which is the lower band of the yearly one Standard Deviation Channel. Look for support near the confluence of 252-EMA and the 200-SMA near 33,550.
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